the wembley turf

After the scourge of a brutal winter comes the gamblers scourge of unpredictable pitches. It looked like the usual rant of a madman when Sir Alex Ferguson suggested that the turgid pitch had “killed Wayne Rooney”, but he may have a point.

The problems with the Wembley pitch are well documented, but elsewhere in England – as the permafrost threatened to lift across the country – an unprecedented number of managers claimed the pitch as a factor in iffy results.

There were grumblings at Peterborough in The Championship as the poor surface did nothing to help a home side that prefers to play it on the deck, but the worst pitching – inevitably – further down the leagues.

In League Two, Bradford seemed to cope better on Rotherham’s quagmire of a pitch, while, bizarrely at Darlington there are whispers that the use of their Arena for a rock concert by U2 last summer has done the damage – although anyone who has seen them play anywhere this season will beg to differ.

However, these grumbles are no coincidence. While the nation counts the cost of a million potholes brought about by one of the coldest winters on record, football clubs are also assessing the damage done to their pitches.

This turn of events should be seen as a warning for punters. While it is difficult to guage what the damage will do to results, we need to assess the damage to our betting models quickly, is we are not to allow our hard-earned profits to fall by the wayside.

The forecast for the next five days or so, is for the wet weather to subside, but there is a continual risk from frost. This could make next weekend difficult, but after that things might improve rapidly.

So, we should keep an eye on the state of pitches. The Premier League, barring Wigan’s shocker of a pitch, should not need factoring in. But there will be a sliding scale of damage done – and effects because of the damage.

With (in no particular order) Leeds, Barcelona, Bayer Leverkusen, Marseille, Lyon, West Brom, Rochdale and swindon all suffering strange results a second factor has come into play – the jitters.

Each team should be taken on its merit. We have well documented Leeds fall from grace, but Barcelona could have lost themselves the title last weekend, unless they can go and get a result in Madrid against rivals Real Madrid at the beginning of next month, their grip on the title is likely to be lost.

Meanwhile, we can discount Swindon, Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille’s results as blips. Rochdale look solid enough for the title, while the jury is out once again on Lyon.

As for Leeds….see below.

Arsenal watch

Another victory for Arsenal, which turned out to be bitter-sweet when it came to personnel. The good news was that after a rather uninspiring display by Theo Walcott against Egypt for England in midweek, he came to life to score and scare the general bejesus out of the Premier League strugglers Burnley.

However, the departure of skipper Cesc Fabregas with another niggly problem with his hamstring will be a concern. he is now out of the tie with Porto, which may be a blessing in disguise for those who either took the 10/1 (11.0) I advised on Arsenal at the beginning of the season, or the 11/4 (3.75) I advised last week. They have now slipped as low as 12/5 (3.4).

A win at home to West Ham next weekend will doubtless put further pressure on their price, especially as Chelsea face a not straightforward trip to Blackburn, while temporary leaders Manchester United must entertain a Liverpool side that will always be dangerous against Man Utd, no matter how poor they are against Wigan and the like.

Watch this space.

League One

It was almost inevitable, if not expected. Leeds failed to win again at home this weekend making it all the more likely that Norwich, now seven points clear, will take the title. It may be too early to say I told you so, but, well, I did just that in August last year when they were 7/1.

If you took that price, it might even be worth laying that off as they are now as low as 1/3.