English leagues: It’s early days but there’s plenty of value around

kris boyd

former rangers marksman kris boyd is a useful addition to a middlesbrough squad that looks set to take the championship by storm

Of course, it is very early days, but there is some interesting ante-post betting in the English leagues this season.


It is fair enough that we still have our betting minds firmly focussed on the World Cup final on Sunday, but we are only three weeks away from the first league action in the Championship, League One and League Two, and a month away from the start of the Premier League, so now is a good time to start trawling the betting exchanges and bookmakers sites for some early value.


Premier League relegation


Perhaps the most interesting price on offer is that of Stoke City who are best-priced 7/1 (8.0 at 10bet) to be relegated next season.
The arrival of Blackpool in the top flight has skewed this market. The minnows are as small as 1/4 (1.25 at Ladbrokes) to be relegated – and very few people are backing against that.
But three go down, and there are questions over whether the other two promoted clubs, WBA (2.0 generally to be relegated) and Newcastle (4.33 at Paddy Power to be relegated) will struggle at the bottom of a league that has a lot of poor sides in it.
Two other clubs likely to struggle this season are Wigan (3.5 at Ladbrokes to be relegated), who conceded five or more an incredible four times last season (including losing 9-0 to Spurs and 8-0 to Chelsea), and Wolves (3.25 generally to be relegated) who could only manage 22 goals last season in 38 games.
But Stoke caught my eye because of the huge disparity in their price to be relegated. It is always a good sign when the Magic Sign, Ladbrokes, who traditionally have the best market-makers in the business, go against the concensus. They are offering only 5/1 on a Stoke drop.
There were signs last season that Stoke’s combative style and set-piece excellence was being found out by sides. They lost by two or more goals six times last season – and were beaten 7-0 by Chelsea.


League Two to be promoted market


Lincoln City have made seven signings under manager Chris Sutton, and can certainly challenge for promotion.
In a league where four teams go up and a team can be promoted from seventh place, this is always a good market to find a value bet, and at 8/1 (9.0 at Betfred), Lincoln are definitely value.
The Imps are unlikely to finish as low as 17th in this league – as the market suggests.


Championship winners


It is very hard to look beyond Middlesbrough, who will have got over the culture shock that the season before’s relegation from the Premier League dealt them – and they have the personnel to grab the league in style.
They will be helped by the fact that two of the relegated sides – Hull and Portsmouth – are beset by problems off the pitch, and that there has been very little significant transfer market elsewhere in the Championship.
The more I look at this market, the more that the 10/1 (11.0 at 10bet) quoted on Middlesbrough represents really good value.
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