I must admit: my life doesn’t begin and end with football and football betting – and that means there are plenty of other betting markets of interest out there.

I was fortunate to be a part of the short but historic team that published The Sportsman betting newspaper in 2006 – a brief rival to the Racing Post, and there met some very interesting people with a different take on gambling.

On the staff we had betting experts on all forms of sport, politics, music, you name it. My favourite was the Eurovision Song Contest betting expert who used to make a fortune out of the chintzy compeition every year – and I mean a fortune.

Which brings me to the Barclaycard Mercury Music Prize, which has just announced its shortlist for 2011. In betting terms the prize is seen as a tougher proposition that the Grand National, but if you tap into the thinking of the judges, it is not as tricky as it looks – I’ve worked out the last four winners myself.

Which brings me to this year’s shortlist and betting. William Hill go:

PJ Harvey 2/1
Adele 6/1
Anna Calvi 6/1
James Blake 13/2
Metronomy 7/1
Ghostpoet 10/1
Everything Everything 14/1
Katy B 14/1
King Creosote and Jon Hopkins 16/1
Tinie Tempah 16/1
Elbow 20/1
Gwilym Silcock 25/1

These odds have already jumped around dramatically since the announcement on July 19. Then Adele and PJ Harvey were 4/1 joint favourites, with Elbow much higher than the 20/1 now offered – a lot of this is to do with the coverage being given by music experts in the last 24 hours. All see Adele being pipped by Mercury darling PJ Harvey (2/1).

And there is a good argument for PJ Harvey winning. This is her third nomination, of which she won one – collecting her award in Washington after being grounded by the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks. This album – Let England Shake – is again a new concept album and very topical, too, as it is about going to war. It is a beautiful piece of work that gets inside your skin with its homage to English folk music.

 

Elbow (20/1) are being discounted as they won with Seldom Seen Kid at the second time of asking, and their latest entry – Build a Rocket, Boys – is not different enough to be considered a real contender. Lead singer Guy Garvey described the nominated album as “like the kid brother of Seldom Seen Kid”.

Adele (6/1) is the artist of the moment, and her inclusion – some cynics may say – is a surefire way to have the Mercury Music Prize seep into the conscious of the American music-buying public. That is not fair on the Tottenham-born singer whose second album, 21,  is accomplished although, like Elbow, incredibly similar to previous works.

Tinie Tempah is probably two-thirds of the way to becoming the next big thing in the world of hip-hop – no mean feat for a kid from South London. His debut album, Disc-Overy, is an accomplished affair, and almost as well lauded as Adele’s 21, with two No 1s, and two top 5 hits, a collaboration with Kelly Rowland, and two Brit Awards. It is probably the Brits that will have the awards committee baulking – which is a shame because Tinie is possibly the best British rap artist ever.

Indie kids

The inevitable indie collections are here in Everything Everything, James Blake and Metronomy. James Blake – a Goldsmiths graduate – has produced an excellent first album and, despite the huge critical acclaim it has received, could find itself passed up because this talented musician is destined to come up with better.

Metronomy, at 7/1, is similarly tipped in the betting, but their album The English Riviera, is just too slick to be a live contender. Of the three Everything Everything is perhaps the better bet: with the unique vocals of Jonathan Higgs and a swathe of original songs that smack of a band that has studied the Mercury Music Prize, Man Alive is a live contender.

Left field

Three of the four more left field shortlisted albums have genuine chances of winning this year. Pianist/compose Gwilym Silcock’s Good Days at Schloss Elmau is the token classical entry and is just not original enough to warrant serious consideration.

The same cannot be said about the folk entry of King Creosote and Jon Harvey with Diamond Mine, which is possibly the most beautifully constructed long player of the year. King Creosote – a Scottish folky has been a decent, if non-inspirational player on the folk scene for more than 15 years, but this collaboration with Jon Harvey will maketh the man.

Jon Harvey and the Mercury Music Prize are a perfect fit. Harvey is a visionary producer who has caught the attention of the best of the industry, working with Brian Eno, Rob da Bank, Coldplay, Four Tet and David Lynch. He brings alive the Scottish landscape that King Creosote sings about in an astonishing album.

Tinie Tempah’s biggest competition is Ghostpoet’s Peanut Butter and Melancholy Jam, which put Coventry on the map with a concept album of such staggeringly candid rap it suggests to the listener what would have happened if Roni Size and Mike Skinner had had a love child.

Anna Calvi‘s eponymous album is well placed in the betting at 6/1 for what is a very good, energetic first effort from a very talented musician.

Finally, Katy B’s album On a Mission is a good first effort, but proves nothing other than the dance chanteuse will be around for a while.

Verdict

It is difficult to see past PJ Harvey’s incredible concept album, but at 2/1 she offers no value. Three albums behind her offer great value and a great chance of winning, if the judges choose to look away from the favourite.

King Creosote is possibly the best album on the shorlist and offers great value at 16/1, Anna Calvi is in a good position to win, but I don’t think the album is quite there.

But Ghostpoet may charm the judges into giving the prize to an album which is topical, interesting, brave and new.

Tips

Back Ghostpoet for 2pts at 10/1 and King Creosote at 1pt at 16/1