Take little notice of the winners and losers in the first weekend of the football leaugue season, the best teams tend to start showing their form after ten games – so the first one may be a red herring.

That’s not to say that teams don’t lead from the start: QPR last season, barring a little hiccup in the middle of the season, pretty much led from start to finish.

What we should be looking for is how teams finished last season, how they have strengthened (or been weakened in the close season), what kind of pre-season have they had, and whether or not they know have the wherewithal to win us money.

Favourites

West Ham (6.0, Hills) and Leicester (6.0, Hills) are the standout teams in this year’s race to the Premier League – but beware: there is an awfully large amount of favourites that have come a cropper in this league.  It has been ten years since a favourite has won the title – and that was Man City (7/2) in 2002. In the intervening years we have had two 25/1 winner (Norwich, Reading), a 22/1 shot (Portsmouth), a 14/1 effort (Wolves), last year’s 12/1 winners (QPR) and three 8/1 shots (Newcastle, WBA and Sunderland).

Birmingham and Blackpool

The other two teams relegated from the Premier League will find returning to the top flight an extremely difficult task from where they are.

Blackpool can be discounted simply because they are weaker than the side that was promoted via the play-offs two seasons ago with a squad in almost open rebellion thanks to a deep cut in their wages and a fight over bonus payments; while Birmingham City have a squad that has been decimated – and will likely be weaker still by the end of August as their owner has his assets frozen thanks to a bribery charge in Hong Kong.

Likely contenders

Nottingham Forest (16/1) just missed out last season and have strengthened, so are likely to compete this season. Middlesbrough (18/1) will be better for the steep learning curve they climbed after relegation in 2010. And if Reading (18/1) hold on to Shane Long they have a shot at a play-off place.

Cardiff (22/1) are weaker but should not be discounted as they know what it takes to get into the top six, while Ipswich (22/1) will go well – but we have said that before and they have flattered to deceive.

Of the rest, Derby (55/1) have bought for a promotion push, while Hull (30/1) could be dark horses if they can replicate their champions form away from home last season when they play at the KC Stadium.

A Bristol City (70/1) side that includes a fit Nicky Maynard for the whole season could surprise a lot of people.

Back to back promotions

Southampton (20/1) are the biggest of the three clubs that came up from a strong League One last season, and they are probably correctly sixth in the betting for this season, but Brighton – with a new stadium, a new striker (Craig Mackail-Smith) and an inspirational manager (Gus Poyet) are perhaps the best value for back-to-back promotions (22/1).

Without Mackail-Smith, Peterborough (150/1) will be looking to survive what will be a real bunfight at the bottom of the Championship.

Relegation dogfight

It was tough for Crystal Palace (5/2 to be relegated) last year, and it is likely to be so again – particularly as two strong sides have come up from League One.

Coventry (5/2) struggled last season, and are weaker this season with an untried manager in Andy Thorn at the helm.

Millwall (6/1) should have enough battle in them to stay up this season – despite losing Steve Morison up front, while those looking for value in the relegation market will keep a close eye on the financial woes of Birmingham City (7/1), while it will be interesting to see if a painfully light Portsmouth (11/2) squad have the fight in them to stave off relegation for the second time of asking.

Verdict

It is very difficult to see beyond Leicester City (5/1, William Hill) for the title this season after some hefty purchases have been added to a squad that finished very strongly last season, while Hull City (30/1, William Hill, 1/4 odds a place 1,2,3) have been mostly ignored by the bookies and are an excellent each-way bet – particularly as there may be money to spend in January if they are there or thereabouts.

I cannot see past Peterborough (5/2, Coral/William Hill/VC) going down in a tough league, while Crystal Palace are also value (5/2, VC).

3pts Leicester to win title at 5/1

2pts e/w Hull at 30/1

3pts Peterborough to be relegated at 5/2

2pts Crystal Palace to be relegated at 5/2