rooney struck the opener on saturday, but did man utd's win just paper over fundamental cracks?

If the importance that fans, commentators and even casual observers place on the first game of the Premier League was translated into points then one could say that Arsenal and Liverpool will no doubt fail again this season, Man Utd look likely to win the title on the back of losts of late, late goals again, and QPR are already relegated.

None of these things will come to pass, well, barring the Arsenal fail one.

It is natural to get over-excited at the start of the season, after all, it’s been a long summer, but it is important not to let it affect our betting performance.

While the start of the season has sunshine and razzmatazz and new hope and excitement, it is lacking one of the most important ingredients for backing winners – any kind of form.

Pre-season is useless, it tells us who is new and who is in the manager’s plans this season (maybe) but it tells us nothing of the real stuff – how players cope with pressure, what they do when they are winning /  losing, whether they have what it takes to beat Team X or Y or Z.

So, we keep our powder dry and watch as others get burned by backing Liverpool to win at home, or maybe Stoke to beat Chelsea. We watch and see how teams play, how they bounce back from a big defeat (QPR), – what they change, if any – how they play after a creditable draw (Norwich) or good away win (Bolton).

And maybe we look at whether other people’s expectations, and how they have moved the market in our favour.

Manchester United grabbed a late winner at WBA on the opening game of the weekend, which was enough – on the back of Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea draws – to tighten their price to as low as 11/10 for the title.

With a central defensive pair hobbling out and a goalkeeper who looks a season in the Premier League short of experience, that could be the worst of bets. Man City have yet to play, and their odds have drifted in the market – despite the possibility of more acquisitions arriving at the City of Manchester Stadium.

And at the bottom, QPR’s 4-0 defeat at home to Bolton is viewed as a precursor to a miserable season. It could be, but it is far too early to tell. For a start, QPR looked perfectly at home until a stunning strike from Gary Cahill put Bolton in front in first-half injury time. Two own goals in three minutes as QPR pushed for an equaliser smacked of naivety – not a team outclassed.

Plus, a new owner (to be announced on Tuesday) will mean new players coming in, and that will affect the 10/11 on offer at most places to go down.

It is also interesting to note that the Magic Sign (Ladbrokes) are going against the grain and offering a hugely 11/10 on a QPR relegation. The Magic Sign are rarely wrong, so it is a good indication to lay a QPR relegation. Remember, on long-term markets you make money by going against the grain, by being ahead of the trend.

ante-post tips

3pts Lay Man Utd to win title at about 2.3 (Betfair)

3pts Back Chelsea to win title at 3/1 (generally)

4pts Lay QPR to be relegation at about 2.0 (Betfair)