Mar 10
3
A tight finish in the English Premier League, but there will be only one winner – and it’s not who you think
arsenal manager arsene wenger has been right about arsenal's chances all season
So we have three teams within three points of each other at the top of the Premier League, and the bookies are undecided as to who is going in it.
Chelsea (61 points) and Man Utd (60 points) are impossible to split at 6/4, while Arsenal (58 points) are a little bit bigger on 11/4. Exciting stuff, eh?
And, here’s the thing: it’s going to get a lot more exciting because the outsider is going to rip right through the field and win.
Yes, that’s right, Arsenal are going to win their first title since 2004. And you heard it here first.
Well, that’s a little white lie, you heard it here second, Arsene Wenger has been convinced for some time now. People wrote Arsenal off when they went as far as 11 points off the pace at the end of November when Chelsea beat them 3-0 at the Emirates, but he insisted then that their lead at the top was not insurmountable.
And so it proved.
Wenger has been called a lot of things, but he is an astute tactician who understands that to win a title you sometimes have to go through some tough runs.
The Chelsea game along with a defeat to Sunderland the week before was one, as was the two they lost to both Manchester teams at the very beginning of the season. But they continue to go on runs in a season that has seen no one dominate.
The top three have managed to lose an incredible 17 games between them with three months to go. That is unbelievable when you think the top three lost 11 in all of the 2008/9 season, 11 in 2007/8, and when they last won the title in 2004, Arsenal were unbeaten all season.
Most of the focus is on two people – and neither are Arsenal players. Chelsea have the problem of John Terry to contend, which is unfair on a squad that has proved itself, if nothing else, probably the best equipped in the league to take the title.
However, JT’s actions are becoming a millstone around manager Carlo Ancellotti’s neck, and there seems to be no let-up.
The second man in the news is Wayne Rooney. The question there is: can Rooney continue to carry a past-it Man Utd side to an unlikely treble?
Man Utd have won the Carling Cup, which is nice. And lie a point behind Chelsea and two ahead of Arsenal in the Premier League, which is nice, while they hold a lead over AC Milan going into the home leg of their Champions League rubber, which may ultimately be the nicest part of their season, but they won’t win the title.
Arsenal, my tip for the title at the beginning of the season, have by far the easiest run-in, which has bought their price in from the 20/1 available at the turn of the year, to the 11/4 at best that the bookies are prepared to offer.
That price will slip further and further as they take on Burnley then Hull then West Ham then Birmingham in March.
Man Utd’s March involves a tricky tie with Liverpool and both Chelsea and Man Utd face each other at the beginning of April.
Chelsea, meanwhile must still face Aston Villa and Liverpool before the season ends.
So, with just three points in it, it really is in Arsenal’s hands: Chelsea’s loss to Man City highlighted the indiscipline in the squad and poor form of their captain John Terry.
Man Utd, meanwhile, looked ordinary until Rooney popped up to score the winner against Aston Villa in Sunday’s Carling Cup final. With such a tight schedule, and a difficult run-in, Sir Alex Ferguson is going to be relying more and more on Rooney to deliver any chance of back-to-back titles.
Meanwhile, Arsenal youngsters are growing up. Just witness their reaction to Aaron Ramsey’s sickening leg-break away to Stoke last weekend. Visibly shaken, the team took a collective deep breath, rolled up their sleeves and got on with the job in hand.
Much better than two years ago when Eduardo broke his leg. There they stuttered to a 2-2 draw against ten men for 87 minutes. Two points that would have given second just three points off champions Man Utd.
What has been most fascinating for me is Arsene’s language. He usually says at some point in a season that he things his squad are “capable” of winning the league, or “will one day”. But this season his message has been clear throughout: “Arsenal WILL win the league.” And I think he’s right. So, Arsenal for the title, then at 11/4. With a run-in like that, they’ll be odds on by April.
