football tipster

Are we seeing the World Cup factor in domestic leagues as players get jittery over injury

Kiwi Ryan Nelson picked up an injury during Blackburn's win over Bolton

Kiwi Ryan Nelson picked up an injury during Blackburn's win over Bolton

We are now creeping towards the 100-day marker for the world cup in South Africa in the summer, which is starting to have an intriguing side-effect on the Premier League.

It is a very difficult thing to spot, but any team with a number of World Cup-bound players in it, is going to suffer a little as those players begin to get the injury-sweats.

To pick up an injury at this stage – with only a couple of weeks before national managers make provisional decisions about their final squad – would be absolutely calamitous, and the players are more than aware of it.

Two former international, Colin Hendry and Craig Burley, more or less confirmed that mindset during half-time of the Blackburn v Bolton game (a winning tip at Evens, by the way) when discussing the injury of Blackburn’s New Zealand centre back, Ryan Nelson, who fell awkwardly in the first half.

If these players are stepping off the gas, it could create all sorts of problems in our predicting process. But the situation is not hopeless. Thankfully, football players are instinctive fellows, and once they realise they are in a game, they tend to get over themselves.

A prime example is perhaps a rather slovenly Aston Villa side, who went one behind against Burnley on Sunday and could have been two down before they snapped out of their collective stupor and rushed five past the hapless Clarets in the second half. Villa fielded a side with at least 4 players who can expect to be going to the World Cup.

They may just get over themselves quicker once Schoolboy Football Law #24 is also pointed out to them. As all schoolboy footballers know, the chances of injury on a football field increase dramatically once a player decides not to commit 100%.

These things always level themselves out in the end.

Leeds leads no longer

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. What has become of the mighty Leeds? The Yorkshire giants, currently in second behind Norwich, drew 1-1 at home to Gus Poyet’s Brighton at the weekend, to once more concede precious points to the chasing pack in the play-off places. That is now 8 league games with only one win since they shocked Man Utd in the FA Cup.

Could that tumultuous afternoon in Lancashire really been the key to the derailment of a club that is desperate to get back into the Championship, and looked certin to do so when they were 8 points clear of second and 11 points clear of Norwich in third as recently as December 30?

Well, in part, but it is not so much the game and the result against Man Utd that has set Leeds on a path to possible destruction but a few key decisions made around that game.

First and foremost, the United win destabilised a reasonably tight dressing room, and the club’s bosses have been unable to do anything to get that back. When a side does something remarkable, the first thing a management team must do is congratulate them, but then tell them in no uncertain terms to knuckle down to make sure that they go on and achieve their next goal.

Unfortunately – and it has been there to see on the pitch since January – there has been a fair amount of laurel resting at Elland Road.

With that going on, how the club, and in particular, Chairman Ken Bates dealt with the rather prickly issue of Jermain Beckford’s future was critical.

Bates, and ultimately Leeds, made a complete has of it, which is little surprise considering the man’s huge ego and for football administrators’ inability to look further than their nose when planning anything.

Beckford was back-page news and was (deservedly) touted as a transfer target of a number of Premier League and Championship clubs. To make matters more interesting, Beckford’s contract expires at the end of the season so if Leeds did not sell him in the January transfer window, he would go for free in May.

He stayed – a decision which may ultimately prove Leeds’ downfall. And they can lay the blame firmly at the feet of Ken Bates who should have sold the player in January, taken the money and trusted the squad he had to get them over the line.

It is a decision teams often get very wrong. When a player is having such an impact at a lower level, it is often because he should be playing at a better level.

But he won’t keep up that level of form indefinitely, and if he doesn’t move soon he may find that his chance of playing at the higher level will have gone.
Other players will have stepped into the limelight, teams lose interest, the lack of better training will see his skills wane etc…
But all owners see is the goals he has scored for them and the goals that they need to score to get into the next division. It is an easy mistake to make. Now that the decision has been made, everyone knows that Beckford will be leaving at the end of the season, and that he is the best player Leeds have.
This makes the dressing room a little warped as they see the seemingly lazy goalscorer up front taking all the plaudits. A dip in form ensues, and the longer that goes on the bigger the chance of Leeds form becoming a rut.
It can now be classed as such after that humiliation at home this weekend against a side they comfortably beat 3-0 away from home earlier in the season.

In truth, the concentration placed on a fourth round tie and subsequent replay against Tottenham in the FA Cup cannot have helped either. But by then the seeds would have been sown.

And it could get worse for Leeds as the next two games are absolutely vital. First up is away at Oldham, who are in form despite an unbelievably tough recent run which has seen them lose to some very strong teams since Christmas (Norwich (1st), Swindon (5th), Colchester (3rd), Millwall (7th)). Any slip there makes the home game against Huddersfield a absolutely tied-in must-win game.
If they lose or draw that one they could find themselves in fourth place behind Charlton and Colchester and a point in front of Swindon who have a game in hand. And now the season is really off the rails.


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