Dec 09
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Newsletter, December 14 2009: English leagues are starting to sort themselves out. At last!
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The Premier League aside – and we still have midweek games to go this week in the English Premier League (subscribers note: expect delivery by 9am GMT Tuesday morning) – we had a very profitable weekend with some very generous odds.I hope you all got a decent price on Leicester City beating Sheffield Wednesday at home. We advised 4/5, but I know that the slightly more generous 10/11 was still available on Betfair only two hours before kick-off.
Leicester’s 3-0 victory highlighted what is now happening in the Championship: the form lines are starting to work themselves out, which is good for those able to pick through the clues to find winners.
What is curious is the extend to which the bookies are getting it wrong in the English leagues.
The price on Morecambe to beat Bournemouth was ludicrous at 6/4, and my only regret is only advising 3pts at that price. Bournemouth are a side whose position is (sadly) set to decline as they struggle to survive on a very threadbare squad.
As I said at the beginning of the month, December is the time when the clubs with money to spend (and big squads) float to the top: the fact that Bournemouth were forced to play Marec Stech in goal – an 18-year-old Czech trainee at West Ham who was emotionally out of his depth says it all.
Still, onwards and upwards for us. Those two results meant an £840 profit in the English leagues (to a £100 stake), which combined with a £200 profit in Europe and a £40 loss in the English Premier League, meant a straightforward £1,000 profit (or 125% return on investment) to a £100 stake.
Learning our lesson
And it would have been more, if we hadn’t got greedy on an Arsenal price that was generous enough. Putting Tottenham and Chelsea in a treble to boost Arsenal’s price on Sunday was daft, and I apologise. I must have had a brain bypass to decide that 5/2 is not a good enough price. Hmm!
Next weekend
Last weekend’s surprises in the English Premier League (I can just imagine the long odds-on backers crying into their betting slips) have set up some intriguing battle in the last round of matches before Christmas.
Portsmouth, who took a point at Stoke at the weekend will fancy their chances against Liverpool at home. It is the problem you have if you start to stutter – everyone thinks that they have the best chance ever to beat you. And just having that attitude is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Fulham at home to Man Utd also looks an intriguing prospect with Fulham going great guns this season, and able to spend the next few months, away from European distraction, concentrating on their league position.
But further down is where the sporting gold is as League One plays host to 1st v form team (Leeds v SOuthampton), 3rd v 5th Norwich v Huddersfield) and a local derby for the team in second (Charlton v Millwall). We’ll get some good prices on offer here.
Congratulations!
Finally, congratulations to Ryan Giggs who became the first footballer since David Beckham in 2001 to win the BBC Sports Personality of the Year.
Although the quiet media-shy Welsh wizard stretches the personality part of the award to the extreme, there is no one who can fault the man for his dedication to the game, his genuine talent over 20 years at the very peak of the game, and his list of achievements. It’s just a shame he chose to play for Wales instead of England. If he had played for England, it is possible to imagine England doing a whole lot better than they did during Giggsy’s career.
Here’s his career in full:
Club: Manchester United (1991-present)
Debut: 1991
Appearances: 821
Goals: 151
Honours
Football:
Premier League: 11
FA Cup: 4
League Cup: 3
FA Community Shield: 7
Uefa Champions League winner: 2
Uefa Super Cup winner: 1
Intercontinental Cup: 1
Fifa World Club Cup: 1
Personal:
BBC Sports Personality of the Year: 2009
PFA Player of the Year: 2009
PFA Young Player of the Year: 1992, 1993
Bravo Award: 1993
BBC Wales Sports Personality of the Year: 1996, 2009
Overall Team of the Decade – Premier League 10 Seasons Awards: 1992–93 – 2001–02
Wales Player of the Year Award: 1996, 2006
FA Premier League Player of the Month: September 1993, August 2006, February 2007
PFA Team Of The Century: 2007
PFA Team of the Year: 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2007, 2009
Goal of the Season: 1999
English Football Hall of Fame: Inducted in 2005
Possibly, the most decorated player in the history of the English game. Well done, Giggsy!
Sean Smith
Editor
Footbet
