Championship
Fixture: Nottingham Forest 0-1 West Bromwich Albion
Venue: City Ground (Forest home)
Kick-off: 3pm BST
Verdict: Just four wins in last week's Championship round of matches suggests two things. The first, obviously, is that we are going to have a very tight league, which is great for us because it means that we will get value prices throughout the campaign. The second is less obvious considering that all four were home wins, but to me it also suggests there may be more away wins this season because tight games make for less home advantage. I could be wrong, but we'll keep an eye on it.
With that in mind, after their draw to Newcastle last week we are being presented with value on West Brom because they remain winless which won't last for long. I have seen nothing of Forest, meanwhile, to warrant the pre-season hype.
Betting Advice: 3pts WBA to win at 17/11 (2.55 at expekt.com)
Fixture: Plymouth 1-1 QPR
Venue: Home Park (Plymouth home)
Kick-off: 3pm BST (Sat)
Verdict: Against my better judgment and I have to put my hand up as a QPR fan here I am going to get involved with QPR this week, but only because I have found a pattern worth exploiting.
At this stage of the season a lot of the prices on offer are based on last season's performance. Last season, QPR's biggest problem was a lack of goals, but that was partly because of a very negative formation and the absence of a number of genuine goalscorers and creators for much of the season in Akos Buzacky, Rowan Vine and Patrick Agyemang. The new signings are all attack-minded, too.
In fact, the attacking set-up of new boss Jim Magilton includes a midfield packed with goalscorers and a first game at home in which QPR managed an incredible 21 shots on goal to Blackpool's 4.
Plymouth, meanwhile, know they will have to pick up their points this season at home and are likely to be more attacking than they were at Crystal Palace last week (1-1).
However, the fact Gillingham put two past them in midweek (QPR put five past Exeter away) suggests a leaky defence something QPR have also been renowned for in the past.
What I am trying to say is: there will be goals. And the bookies don't think there will be because of last season's form.
Betting Advice: 2pts more than 2.5 goals (2.25 generally)
League One
Fixture: Huddersfield 3-1 Southampton
Venue: Galpharm Stadium (Huddersfield home)
Kick-off: 3pm BST
Verdict: I saw nothing last Saturday in a 2-2 draw at Southend to suggest that my pre-season tip for the title (Huddersfield) won't be there at the end of the season. Going 2-0 down they fought back and would have taken all three points perhaps if they hadn't had a player sent off ten minutes from time. They are odds against at home to Southampton on Saturday and I suggest taking it, because they won't be odds against many times at home this season.
Betting Advice: 4pts Huddersfield to win at 6/5 (2.2 at Bet365, Skybet)
Fixture: Exeter v Norwich
Venue: St James Park (Exeter home)
Kick-off: 3pm BST
Verdict: Let's be straight about one thing: last week's 7-1 defeat for Norwich against Colchester was a strange one-off. We need to get over it because I can imagine that there will be some value in supporting Norwich for the foreseeable future. Like here where, after a 4-0 win in midweek in the carling Cup, they are very generous odds to beat an Exeter side that will definitely struggle in this division and whose boss, after a 5-0 defeat in midweek, is already talking about trying to reinstall confidence. Very bad sign.
Betting Advice: 2pts Norwich to win at 13/8 (2.63 at Paddy Power and Skybet)
League Two
Fixture: Hereford 1-1 Cheltenham
Venue: Edgar Street (Hereford home)
Kick-off: 3pm BST
Verdict: A bright attacking Hereford side should beat Martin Allen's Cheltenham side, but they are going to have to be strong against a team that will outmuscle them if they are allowed to. This Hereford side has goals in it, with Marc Pugh and Leon Constantine proving a great foil for each other up front.
Betting Advice: 2pts Hereford to win at 13/10 (2.3 at Bet365)
