Saturday
Fixture: Chelsea 2-1 Hull
Venue: Stamford Bridge (Chelsea home)
Kick-off: 12.45pm BST
Verdict: This season I am putting into play a new strategy developed over the summer with a lot of research. Certain conditions need to be met for the strategy to be triggered; and this game along with Man Utd v Birmingham below meet that criteria. The following bet equates to a statistical anomaly, which is sometimes what gambling is all about finding a niche, finding value and exploiting it. Make sure you shop around for the right prices. And remember, that you pay a commission on winnings with Betfair.
Betting Advice: 1pt each of the following: Chelsea to win 1-0 at 13/2 (7.5 at bet365, totesport and VC); 2-0 at 11/2 (6.5 at VC, Coral and William Hill); 2-1 at 9/1 (10.0 at sportingbet and Skybet); and 3-1 at 11/1 (12.0 at Coral)
Fixture: Portsmouth 0-1 Fulham
Venue: Fratton Park (Portsmouth home)
Kick-off: 3pm BST
Verdict: Portsmouth are in meltdown before the season has even started and it is difficult to see them doing anything other than struggle throughout the coming season. Fulham, on the other hand, are enjoying the fruits of a successful season already, tasting success in the Europa Cup. They will be fully match fit and are competition ready, which puts them at a distinct advantage at this stage of the season. Anyone remember Villa's lightning start last year after Euro qualifiers?
Betting Advice: 3pts Fulham to win at 2/1 (3.0 at expekt.com)
Sunday
Fixture: Manchester United 1-0 Birmingham
Venue: Old Trafford (Man Utd home)
Kick-off: 1.30pm BST
Verdict: This is all part of my master plan for world domination and United's price to win fits into my model for financial success. Don't expect a bloodbath because Birmingham are very organised. But expect a little profit back for being a canny gambler.
Betting Advice: 1pt each of the following: Man Utd to win 1-0 at 13/2 (7.5 generally); 2-0 at 11/2 (6.5 generally); 2-1 at 9/1 (10.0 at Skybet); and 3-1 at 11/1 (12.0 at Skybet)
Fixture: Tottenham 2-1 Liverpool
Venue: White Hart Lane (Man Utd home)
Kick-off: 4pm BST
Verdict: White Hart Lane is a tricky enough start for Liverpool in front of the cameras, but they should sneak this against a very attack-minded Spurs at home. However, it will be close which is why I am minded to go for the very generous Evens or better on offer on more than 2.5 goals considering the firepower on offer. The only problem is that famous Sky Sports jinx of low-scoring TV games!
Betting Advice: 1pt more than 2.5 goals at Evens (2.0 generally OR 2.1 at Betfair)
THE NO BETS
Saturday
Aston Villa should win this one hands down, but it is difficult to tell what kind of start they are going to have. Wigan are more than capable of a surprise, but have a new manager and are best watched, too
Res: 0-2
Blackburn are a side that will be looking down instead of up, while Man City are not best priced for the away win in what will be a fiercely-contested Lancashire derby
Res: 0-2
It is too early to tell with both Bolton and Sunderland. Bolton are expect to go down, but I want to see them play first before making a big decision on them
Res: 0-1
Stoke have the nightmare of a non-Premier League club on the first game of the season. Burnley will relish the easier start they have been given
Res: 2-0
Wolves are an unknown quantity, but I don't expect much from them, while the jury is out on whether West Ham have the firepower for anything other than a relegation tussle
Res: 0-2
Would you back Arsenal at the moment, and would you do it against Everton at home? No, neither would I. That appalling home start for Everton last season worries me here, too
Res: 1-6
