Update 28 June 2010:
Sell remaining Germany point at 41, making a profit of 13; Mexico out at 10, thus losing us 5pts. Total profit = 41pts. No more bets pending. Well done, everyone!
Update 27 June 2010:
We will take a small 2pt loss on Germany for one of our points, and let the other one ride. Total profit so far = 33pts. Still play: 1pt Germany at 28, 5pts Mexico at 11.
Update 25 June 2010:
Sell all 4pts of Slovakia (bought at 8) for 13. That gives us a 20pt profit. Sell 5pts of Mexico (we bought 10pts at 11) for 14. That gives us a 15pt profit. Total profit so far = 35pts. Still in play: 2pts Germany at 28, 5pts Mexico at 11.
The World Cup, although always an exciting tournament, rarely provides a real surprise winner and, as we now know every team far better than we have ever done in the history of the tournament, it is unlikely to do so now.
The small group of teams that are almost certain to provide the winner - Brazil (40-43), Spain (43-46), England (39-42), The Netherlands (28-31), Italy (28-31), France (24-27), Germany (25-28) and Argentina (33-36)- are all priced to reach the quarter-finals at the very least. Spain and Brazil must make it to the semi-finals at least to create any type of profit (unless you sel out at the right time).
Below lies the real value. Mexico (8-11) provide a very low risk considering their excellent form, very good squad and winnable group. They also have the experience of playing regularly at altitude, which will be a factor at this World Cup with 6 out of 10 stadia up on high. I can see the Mexicans making the quarter-finals at least, and perhaps even the semis.
I also like the look of Slovakia (6-8)who have the ability to get out of a group that is led by the stuttering Italians. The Slovakians are the top scorers in qualifying and beat the Czech Republic to make it to South Africa.
Of the top sides the best value is Germany (25-28) who should make it as far as the last 16 with few problems, and are likely to then face the runner-up in England's group, which is very winnable.
Tips: 10pts Mexico at 8-11; 4pts Slovakia at 6-8; 2pts Germany at 25-28 (all prices sportingindex, other spread betting firms have different prices and spread values). Email me if you are unsure at help@footbet.co.uk
Keep returning to the World Cup page because I will be advising you when to sell (if at all)